5-Year Forecast – Patrick

3-5 Year Financial Forecast

A financial forecast is not a strategic plan. It is not concerned with things like our “mission” or “values.” Instead, as you can see in the screenshot below, it focuses on just two things:

(1) Existing assets addressed in the annual budget, such as the Golf Complex, common area landscaping and Vista & Delta Club operating expenses (TRV/FSR ‘Other’), and proposed new assets already drawn-up such as the Health & Wellness Center and 4th Clubhouse; and

(2) Their approximate expenses and impact on our HOA dues.

In short: a financial forecast would estimate how much everything is going to cost before we start constructing the new amenities that will increase our HOA dues for decades to come.

Screenshot

To view the spreadsheet notes, please click here.

To download the actual Excel spreadsheet, please click here.

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I. DUES CALCULATOR
This tool enables you to quickly calculate how much Annual Income is generated by various monthly HOA dues. It assumes 3008 homeowners, and the current year is accurate: $180/month per home, which translates to $6,497,280 in annual income.

The Percentage field enables you to calculate increases or decreases. For example, to see how much our annual income would be if our current dues were increased by 15%, enter 115% in the Current Year percentage field (instead of 100%). This results in $207/mo or $7,471,872 annually. (If you enter 15%, you’ll get $27, which if added to the current $180, also equals $207.)

When printing the Forecast, the Dues Calculator does not show. It’s simply a tool to calculate the Association’s annual income depending on the monthly assessment. For example, if we increase our dues by 15% each year for the next five years, you’ll see that by year six our dues would be $416/month.

II. EXPENSES
This table enables the Board to summarize approximate expenses for each major TRV asset/project per year, starting with FY2021-22. For example, $685,464 is the actual amount budgeted for the Golf Complex this year, and $5,811,816 is the amount that remains out of the total annual income of $6,497,280. (In other words, $5,811,816 is the approximate amount the Board budgeted for all non-golf complex TRV/FSR expenses this fiscal year). As each allocation is entered, Total Expenses is automatically calculated, as are the Monthly HOA dues required to fund the expenses.

PLEASE NOTE:
(1) The tabs at the bottom of the spreadsheet provide tools for summarizing the Total Expenses for each major asset/project, per year. The Golf Complex tab is “actual,” in that it’s based on this year’s TRV/FSR golf course budget. The other tabs are for the proposed new amenities and remodeling projects: the new Health & Wellness Center, the new fourth Clubhouse, and the new Vista Club remodel and new Delta Club remodel. The templates make it relatively easy for the Board to summarize the approximate total expenses for each asset/project per year, and then enter the total expenses in the ’TRVMA FINANCIAL FORECAST’ tab.

(2) The TRV/FSR (Other) line item on the TRVMA Financial Forecast is for all current assets other than the Golf Complex, so it includes the core — non-remodeling — expenses for the Vista and Delta clubs, just as in past budgets.

The key is to keep things simple: to enable the Board to forecast the Golf Complex budgets as it has for the past two years; then forecast all ‘Other’ current TRV/FSR expenses as the Board always has; and then add the costs for the four proposed new amenities projects.

Finally, as you can see, the table provides a line item for servicing loans, if any. And the last line automatically calculates what our HOA dues would have to be each year if Total Expenses were funded solely by our HOA dues.

III. ADJUSTED TOTALS
The final table on the TRVMA FINANCIAL FORECAST tab enables the Board to adjust Total Expenses by allocating money from two potential sources:

(1) Our “discretionary” accounts already funded, i.e., the Development Fund and the Fourth Fund (the Shea Settlement Fund); and,

(2) Any money the Board may acquire via loans. Which, of course, would also be included as an Expense once the Association starts paying down principle and interest. Currently, we have more than $2 million in the Development and Fourth funds, so even without a loan, the Board can choose to make sizable adjustments.

IN SUM:
This what a 5 year forecast looks like. Obviously it’ll take some work on the Board’s part, but it’s do-able. And it’s way past time for the Board to do it. Before implementing any new amenties, and before approving the upcoming FY2021-22 budget.

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About Patrick

My wife Karyn and I moved to Trilogy in the summer of 2018. The proud parents of two children and three grandchildren, we spent our professional lives working as Licensed Clinical Social Workers (LCSW).

In my case, I came to the Bay Area to attend college more than 40 years ago, obtaining a B.A. from Stanford University and two Master degrees from U.C. Berkeley. I spent most of my career specializing in employee health and organizational development as an Employee Assistance Program (EAP) professional. In addition to my expertise as a licensed counselor, I have decades of managerial, consultation and crisis response experience. Highlights include managing CARE Services for Faculty & Staff, the EAP at U.C. Berkeley; helping establish and coordinate the Employee Assistance Program for physicians, nurses and staff at Kaiser Permanente's Santa Clara Medical Center; and working in a variety of capacities with the employee assistance programs at Southern California Edison (SCE) and Pacific Gas & Electric company (PG&E).

I have been privileged to help organizations and their employees cope with the most challenging of crises -- from the 1989 Loma Prieta and 1994 Northridge earthquakes, to the 911 terrorist attacks and PG&E San Bruno gas pipeline explosion. I've served as a consultant to leaders at all organizational levels, from Chancellors, Deans and Chairs to Physicians in Chief, Vice Presidents, Department Managers and frontline Supervisors. I am a practical expert in electronic information systems and data-driven program evaluation, and I led interdisciplinary evaluation projects at both SCE and PG&E. As the Manager of U.C. Berkeley's CARE Services for Faculty & Staff, I gained invaluable experience as a supervisor and budget manager, and as co-leader of the U.C. Berkeley Diversity Facilitators Network, I was the proud recipient of the Chancellor's Outstanding Staff Award. Upon retirement in 2014, I became certified as a Registered Investment Advisor (RIA) and I still spend a few hours a week as a web developer for small business people.

In sum, over the years I've acquired an array of skills, but when Karyn and I moved to Trilogy in 2018, I imagined a quiet life of leisure. However, as I learned more about the trials and tribulations surrounding the Golf Course, Monarch Grill, 4th Clubhouse, Design Center and Shea Settlement Agreement — and the Master Board's choices at key moments throughout — I could not stand by in silence. The issues are too critical and too pressing, and we deserve better. So I decided to run immediately and I am asking for your vote. If elected, I promise to do my very best to make our governance more transparent, accountable and inclusive.